The 1968 movie 2001: A Space Odyssey, that depicted a future in which the 1960s peace of advance into space continued, has, so far, remained only a fantasy. Commercial spaceplane flights to orbital rotating space hotels, settlements on the moon, and human missions to the outer planets, as well as utilization of solar power collected in space and mining the moon or asteroids for materials to be used on Earth, are still distant visions many decades away. Or are they? Could we be nearing a time of rapid advances into space?
It has now been four decades since Neil Armstrong's "one small step for a man" onto the moon during the Apollo 11 mission and many feel our advance into space has stalled. But consider other historical achievements of great magnitude. One comparison is settlement of the American West. Thomas Jefferson predicted that it would take a thousand generations to settle the West, and four decades after the Lewis & Clark Corps of Discovery expedition that was initiated by Jefferson, that still seemed a reasonable prediction. Even in the 1840s the West was considered by many to be distant and dangerous, and was largely the domain of the native peoples. Yes, there were settlements and farms along the Mississippi River and the lower reaches of the Missouri River, but only a few forts and trading posts were further up the Missouri, and the number of "mountain men" and exploratory expeditions into the deep interior was low. Within another 20 years, however, that situation changed dramatically, and by 1890 the U.S. Census Bureau declared the West settled, only five generations after Jefferson. The rapid changes were enabled by the convergence of three factors: vision, motivation, and means.
Without a broadly-shared vision, efforts are unfocused and may be conflicting. Without widely-felt motivation, efforts are tepid and ineffective. Without the appropriate means, efforts are stunted and stillborn. So, if any one of these factors is missing, an achievement will not occur. The means can be further divided into critical technologies, supporting infrastructure, and appropriate agreements, which may involve legislation and regulation (to establish boundaries and provide suitable stability) and treaties (where international considerations are important).
Though it happened much more quickly than Jefferson had expected, as settlement of the West shows, there can be a considerable lag from an initial event indicating the potential for a major achievement until the key factors converge to enable the achievement to occur. For settlement of the West, this was about 60 years after Lewis & Clark. A more recent example is the rise of aviation, where dramatic increases in commercial aviation occurred in the late 1950s, about 55 years after the Wright brothers ' first flight. The lag is a critical time when a vision gains support, the motivation to reach for the vision becomes broadly felt, and the means required to achieve the vision are developed. When these factors are sufficiently mature at the same time (i.e., when they converge), the rate of change becomes exponential. For settlement of the West, convergence occurred in the 1860s, when a vision of the United States spanning the continent became common, the motivation to migrate (related to increasing immigration from Europe and the ending of the Civil War) and the need for new sources of raw materials (to support increasing industrialization) reached critical levels, and the expansion of the railroads and the development of new technologies-from the steel plow and other agricultural equipment to the telegraph and canning of food-provided the means. Establishing the boundaries of the U.S. with Canada and Mexico and passage of the Homestead Act were also important. Once these factors converged, westward migration increased from tens of thousands to millions of people. For aviation in the 1950s, the vision of increased interconnection between nations became widely shared, motivated by the need for improved diplomacy between nations (following World War II) and a desire to see the world (for individuals). The means included the infrastructure of airport facilities and air traffic control systems, the technology of jet engines and advanced aeronautics, and legislation such as the Federal Aviation Act and international agreements. The resulting increases in comfort, safety, convenience and speed, along with declining costs, enabled increasing millions of people to fly to distant destinations.
What does this indicate regarding space? We are currently at that pre-transcontinental railroad, pre-jet engine, pre-convergence stage of development, so major advancement and change seems to be a long way off. But recent developments-from the X-Prize competitions and the formation of Virgin Galactic (which will soon begin taking tourists to the edge of space) to broad-based exploration of the solar system by numerous countries (during the current Year of the Solar System and beyond) and technological innovations that will aid space travel-show that advances are occurring. The next ten years are a critical period and by using this understanding of convergence to focus our efforts, we can shorten the transition period to the exponential phase of space development, and hasten reaping the benefits of advancing into space.
The vision of 2001: A Space Odyssey could be realized, but establishing such a vision is not really a goal. And, as others have pointed out, "a destination is not a goal" either. The goal, for publicly-funded efforts, should be to address public concerns of today (as Apollo addressed concerns of the 1960s), and we need a vision for space development that clearly does that. At a time of budget deficits, it is important for the vision to also be fiscally prudent and to have interim steps that also address public concerns. For these reasons, rather than develop a "grand vision" and then try to convince the public that it is important, first considering what the public is concerned about and then identifying which concerns space activities might help address would be a better approach. Devising a program of space activities after doing these steps would likely lead to a space program that is somewhat different from what we currently have (though not necessarily drastically so), but it would also be much more relevant and would therefore have a greater chance of being successfully completed.
We are on the verge of a great transition regarding space activities, as convergence of vision, motivation, and means leads to exponential advances. Our choices will determine our success in negotiating the transitions not just in space, but also with all of the challenges of the 21st century. But we are still in need of a vision for space that addresses those challenges. How we may develop such a vision is the subject of the next article in this series.